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Eugen Tarnow

 

    Analytical Thoughts

      GNP seasonality adjustments appear to be just fine

      Eugen G Tarnow  April 30 2017 09:34:17 AM
      By Eugen Tarnow, Ph.D.
      Avalon Business Systems, Inc.
      http://AvalonAnalytics.com

      The Wall Street Journal questioned the GDP seasonal adjustment methods as the latest quarter came in at a low 0.7% growth and it seemed like the first quarter often comes in low:

      Image:GNP seasonality adjustments appear to be just fine

      An ANOVA test of their hypothesis, however, shows that there is no significant difference between the quarters (p=0.18) so the seasonal adjustment appears to work just fine.  

      (I read the numbers off of the graph as:
      1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Year
      3.75
      2.75
      2.45
      2010
      -1.5
      3.25
      0.75
      4.5
      2011
      2.75
      1.875
      0.5
      0.1
      2012
      2.8
      0.8
      3.1
      4
      2013
      -1
      4
      5
      2.2
      2014
      2
      2.65
      2
      0.85
      2015
      0.8
      1.4
      3.5
      2.1
      2016
      0.7
      2017






      ).
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